Regarding this Tuesday's budget, rumours abound that Alberta's surplus might exceed $10 billion. While it doesn't look like oil and gas prices will drop sharply in the near future, you and your colleagues in the Klein cabinet really are on a fiscal Temptation Island. You must not betray your long-term relationship with taxpayers - a relationship of trust that has grown significantly since you cut spending in the early 1990s.



In 1990-91 the Alberta government spent $11.5 billion on health, education, social services and other programs. Four years later, program spending had been reduced to $11.1 billion. In those same four years, Alberta's population grew from 2.5 million to 2.7 million, and cumulative inflation was 14.4%.

From 1990 to 1994, real per capita program spending was cut by more than one fifth.

But five years later, spending was back up to 1990 levels again. In 1999-2000 the government spent $16.3 billion on programs, for a population just under three million. This past fiscal year of 2000-01, the government spent $18.2 billion.

Translated into 2001 constant dollars, program spending per Albertan was $5,849 in 1990. After four years of cuts, it was down to $4,641. By 1999, it was back up to Don Getty levels, at $5,850 per Albertan. This past year, program spending went even higher: $6,285 per Albertan, in 2001 tax dollars.




In 2000-01, Alberta spent more per person than NDP governments in B.C., Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. More per person than the Ontario Tories and the Parti Quebecois in la belle province. More than Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Only the government of P.E.I spent slightly more per person than Alberta, but it receives 45 cents from Ottawa for every dollar it spends on programs. In contrast, Ottawa gives us less than 10 cents for every dollar the Alberta government spends on provincial programs.




Only three years ago, the Alberta government received $2.4 billion in oil and gas revenues. From 1990 to 1996, revenues from oil and gas averaged $2.6 billion per year. Your budget should factor $2.5 billion of resource revenues into program spending. All the rest (nobody knows for sure what that number might be) should go to debt repayment.




If government spending rises yet again, Albertans will keep on paying income tax forever. It doesn't have to be that way. Once the debt is paid off, excess oil and gas revenues should go to the Heritage Fund. Once the Heritage Fund reaches $55 billion, it will produce enough income to replace what the government takes from Albertans in income tax.




Your government is already spending 7% more per person on programs, in real terms, than Don Getty was in 1990. Alberta is already the highest spending province in Canada. Why not keep spending at 2000-01 levels, with increases limited to inflation and population growth Program spending for 2001-02 should not exceed $19.2 billion.